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Blue Tsunami!

Holy sh*t! Democrats roll to commanding majorities in both the Senate and House, cruising to wins in deep-red Kansas, South Carolina, and Texas (and just about everywhere else) and picking up key governorships around the country. Jon, Lovett, Dan, and Tommy go through all the highlights of this historic drubbing, the forces that drove it, and the emerging Democratic stars who made it possible. Warning: if you're looking for bad news, you won't find it here. Hate listening to ads? Become a Friends of the Pod subscriber for ad-free episodes of Pod Save America, Pod Save the World, Lovett or Leave It, Runaway Country, Offline with Jon Favreau, and more—plus exclusive content, including bonus episodes of Pod Save America. Subscribe now at crooked.com/friends , on Apple Podcasts, or through the Pod Save America YouTube channel. You can request a transcript by emailing transcripts@crooked.com . Include the podcast name, episode title, and air date. Please allow 48 hours for delivery.

2026. 11. 4.56:57

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Jon Favreau, Jon Lovett, Dan Pfeiffer, and Tommy Vietor discuss a historic night for Democrats, who are projected to control the Senate and a massive House majority. They explore how economic frustrations and opposition to the Iran war fueled a nationwide repudiation of Donald Trump and his endorsed candidates.

핵심 요점 1Democrats are projected to win a significant Senate majority, potentially reaching 55 seats.

핵심 요점 2The House majority for Democrats is estimated at approximately 254 to 255 seats.

핵심 요점 3The Iran war and rising costs due to tariffs were identified as critical factors in the Republican defeat.

핵심 요점 4Republican gerrymandering efforts in states like Florida and Texas largely failed to protect incumbents.

핵심 요점 5Voter turnout in rural areas for Republicans was notably weak, contributing to Democratic gains in states like Texas.

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A Blue Tsunami Across the Map

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Transcribed from “Blue Tsunami!” by Pod Save America, who holds all rights to the original and has not licensed or reviewed this page. Rights holders can request removal.

This transcript was generated by speech recognition and the summary and chapters by AI, so they can contain errors. BestPodcast is not affiliated with the creator.

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Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau. I'm Jon Lovett. I'm Dan Pfeiffer. Tommy Vina Tor. Well, how about this? What a night. What a fucking night, guys. Uh we're recording this at about 9:30 p.m. California time and uh I mean, we don't have final numbers, but you know, it's a it's a blue tsunami. It's a blue nami. It's a blue nami. It's a blue cocky. Oh. Oh boy. Boy. Tell Rico is in Tell Rico gives one little victory speech about loving their neighbor all of a sudden.

Wanted to set the wanted to set the tone for the pod early. Tell Rico he was pitting tops versus bottoms. It was very divisive. He was. He was. Democrats are running the table in the Senate races. Uh I think the New York Times model has us controlling the Senate 55-45. Who had 55 Senate seats? Not I. Anyone? Nope. Not I. An absolute thumping in the House. The Times model has the new Democratic majority at I think it's like up to 255 now. It says here 254-180.

255? Uh that's what the that's what the needle says. The needle. The needle's never lied. Yeah, well, okay, 254-255. We don't know yet, but that's that's the range. Uh also a ton of governors races. Uh we're going to go through all the incredible details, but I don't know. Let's just start. How do we feel, guys? Aside from fucking amazing. Uh big big picture thoughts on the night. I mean, this is the electoral ass-whipping that Trump has deserved for 10 years and we've been waiting for. Yeah.

It is a absolute historic repudiation of him, his party, his agenda, his broken promises. Democrats are winning everywhere. They're winning by huge margins. They're up double digits in districts that Trump won by 15. They're up up double digits in Texas. As we record this, it'll narrow but but Ted Lieu is up by 12 points in Texas as we're recording this. Texas, 12 points. Five points in Kansas, one South Carolina, one Kansas. It's it's at at every we watched we watched the whole night. It never got a single piece of data that was concerning the whole time.

Yeah. All places winning everywhere. Yeah, I remember when uh we're watching these results in in 2018 and the feeling as as we watched those come in. And you know, Dan, when we were talking about the polls earlier in the week, we were kind of cautiously talking about why we could trust that potentially these polls were this good. And the point you made was actually the conditions on the ground are much better than they were in 2018. The economy is in much worse shape. Trump's approval is in much worse shape.

There's an ongoing Iran war, the tariffs, the the corruption finally breaking through. And that was a justification for believing hopefully things were as good as 2018. But of course, we now can say, you know what? The situation on the ground was much worse and we did much better. Yeah, I mean, the the Teflon Don era is over. He is he does not have magical powers. He does not defy gravity. He is a typical politician and now a failed one. And on his way out on his way out.

And so, that is good. Like, we don't have to be scared of this guy. And the one the one thing I really want to drive home though is like I I think we cannot overstate how catastrophic the decision to go to war with Iran was. Like it is in some sense it's like stating the obvious, but um Democrats need to internalize that verdict from voters and then course correct. Like we need to say, okay, there's a continuing resolution going through the Senate December 11th. We should say we will not vote to fund the government unless you cut off funding for the illegal war.

When we take up power, Democrats should force votes to constrain him or make him end the war with Iran. We should impeach Peg Peg Hogsad. Like I just want us to like get back to being the anti-war party. I think it's unbelievably important and like the reason for this result. I mean, I think Yes. And the reason is people don't like war. They also don't like the fact that what war did to the price of everything here. I mean, Donald Trump Yep. won in 20 the reason he won again in 2024 when none of us thought um that the country would want another term of Donald Trump after everything he did is because people were really pissed about prices and he said, I'll bring prices down and he did not do that.

Not only did he fail to bring prices down, he increased prices with the tariffs first and then with the Iran war. And then was like, I don't give a shit. And then said, I don't give a shit and then by the way I'm making billions of dollars and so are all my friends and all I care about is my home renovations and fuck you all basically. And so, in some ways it is a shocking result. In other ways you're like, well, yeah, when you do that to the country and people are hurting and you're basically just flaunting it in in front of flaunting your wealth and like just you know, running around every day he fucking he ended the campaign, the midterm campaign in front of the Lincoln Memorial holding up signs talking about algae in the fucking reflecting pool.

Like, yeah, of course this happened. Yes, at every step of the way when he went out there, he seemed intent on making his political problems exponentially worse. He could never feel that not that Trump can feel anyone's pain. He couldn't even acknowledge anyone's pain about the economy because to do so would admit that he had failed in some way shape or form. He went out there and did the he did whatever it was 28 rallies in the last month, gaslit ever the the public at every single one of them, bragged and talked about his home reno projects the whole time which everyone hated.

Just like the Democratic message was he does not care about your costs. He is not focused on that and he went and and did rallies where he explicitly said, I don't care about your costs and then talked about all the things he was focused on other than their costs. Hey, hey, shout out to all the bozos who said Obama was an elitist who was out of touch for making a cheesecake factory joke. And then Obama baited Trump into like five more days of defending his home renovations and like stapling gold to the wall or whatever.

Democrats gained 36 points in every county that has a cheesecake factory. I mean, I mean, I made that No, I that we're going with that. Sure. And also like I mean, we talk about Trump, but every single Republican that lost tonight and the ones who didn't, none of them said a fucking word. Yeah. Like if a Democratic president had done half of what Donald Trump did over the last two years, the party would have been it would have been a fucking uproar. Yeah. And you know, and they said nothing.

And so they all lost. And it's great. It's Trump's fault because they hit at least they were doing a piss-poor half-assed job of it. But a month ago, you know, you have uh Congresswoman Salazar in Florida talking about deportations. We have members of Congress in Texas talking about deportations. You have Mike Rogers and Ashley Hinson talking about ending the war and tariffs. And then Trump says, I'm going to come to your town and you're going to have to stand next to me while I defend and promote the war and the tariffs.

And they have to stop just doing all those things and run with Trump. Also, I mean, I the the scale of the victory tonight is like nothing we have seen in our lifetimes. I mean, 2000 2008. The margins in 2008 because it was we won a presidency plus the huge majorities that swept into Congress is probably the most analogous. Yeah. But in terms of the sheer what the House vote is going to be, I mean, it's like up to the New York Times needle estimate up to like 13 a D plus 13 night nationally is something I I haven't seen on the Democrat or Republican side since 1974.

1974. We're like liberal cicadas. You know, every 70 years you pop up, you make them do good. 2010 when national the popular vote was or 2008 the popular vote was 10 points. So we're bigger than that. We're bigger than the year Obama won beating McCain by seven points and won 365 electoral votes. It's really built up, you know, built up over 10 years. Everyone just had to Well, it's a right you know, look, there I feel like part of the the reason there's so much sort of I don't know brittleness and and and anxiety on the left is like the both on the part of politicians and people who just think about politics or care about politics is this feeling of like not knowing the country and feeling like unmoored by that.

And a lot of the reaction, a lot of the you know, Democrats whether it's shifting left in 2020 in the 20 raising their hands at times just to try to win people over and then not being sure how to fight Trump but kind of losing their sense of the country. And part is because there's never been this kind of rebuke, right? We took us days to find out that Joe Biden has won. 2018 is disappointing. And now like this is the The thing was it was a I mean, it was It was just a split verdict.

He kept the Senate. He kept the Senate. He kept the Senate. Well, look, he was at the time unprecedented obviously. What he's done now makes that look like a visit to the cheesecake factory. But but the Good old days. But but I think there's a lot of like people that have been hyper engaged in politics sort of like where like where is everybody? And now we have a victory in Kansas for the first time what in 94 years? 94 years. A fact I stole from you from a previous broadcast.

And and uh uh within an inch in Mississippi. I mean, it's extraordinary. It's the the tribalism went away and people voted on interests. It's nice to see. And people and the Trump coalition abandoned Trump. Like where you see where the Democrats made huge gains were in states with large rural areas. It's why it's why Adam Hamilton won in Kansas. It's why Andrews won in South Carolina. It's why Josh Turick who was the Democrat probably most likely to lose of the big four races we talked about.

He's up what? Six points as we're recording this right now. Most nervous one. And I'll just say, you know, the same kind of running the kind of like anti-trans playbook on Ted Lieu Rico, for example, it turns out that these issues are less salient when gas prices are $6. And so I once again suggest the formation of some kind of independent non-binary militia to blow up oil refineries in Russia. That that you would be serving both the interest of democracy in your own country because the higher the gas prices, the more people like trans people.

I don't think there's the rule. I think there's actually no office. I think there's no evidence that those ads work in any election. Because I actually don't think that's why Kamala Harris lost. No, it is it's the reverse of what happened there which is like when people are struggling financially and they think that the people in power are focused on something other than their financial struggles, they will punish the party in power. Yep. And the Republicans made people believe that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris were weren't focused on their struggles and they were focused on other issues, right?

Other people. And and and it turns out in this case with Trump, he really is focused on every other issue but their struggles which is we we know because he tells us that all the time. Yeah. That was an easier one. Other than other than telling people that aren't 82 that they can't afford the the shrimp cocktails. Also was part of it that kind of So, it says a lot about the kind of election this was that the winning the House back was a foregone conclusion, but the margin is obviously pretty astounding.

I mean, like I said, we're the 254-255 is projection for the House majority here. Um what were some of your favorite House races uh or the most notable House races that we won? Maybe the ones you were surprised or you were happy about. I mean, our several-time guest Bobby Politto in Texas is putting up like a sad numbers. Yeah. In a district he's a I think he's at like 60-61% in a district Trump won by like 17 or 18. Yeah. That is crazy. Now, that's the story of broader trends, but also candidate quality.

Like this is a guy who's like a like a Latin Grammy award-winning artist who was not seen as a traditional politician by anybody. I mean, it's just a recruiting coup. I mean, Democrats are crushing across the Rio Grande Valley and the largely Latino districts outside of San Antonio. Just if you look at the map, that is blue. She blue. Like Brandon Herrera is one of the worst humans alive is getting absolutely destroyed in that race, the Republican candidate there. I mean, just you look at him, you know, the two we said at the beginning the outset, the two races to watch because they were the ones where the polls closed first were Kentucky 6.

That would be the if we won Kentucky 6, that would be a sign of a pretty big blue wave. And we won Indiana 5, it'd be the size of the be a tsunami indicator. And we won both of those races. Victory Spars. It looks like we're going to we're going to sweep most of the House races in North Carolina and probably unseat the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Campaign Committee, the guy in charge of winning the House back for Republicans. By the way, shout out Zach Dabo, cool guy.

Yeah, yeah. in uh Kentucky. Also that piece of shit Max Miller lost. Oh, Max Miller lost? That's great. That's great. Uh Fuck that guy. Mike Lawler lost in New York. Yeah. I'm I'm We were anonymous Democrats were telling Axios would could never lose. That was cool. I also just the uh the total backfiring of their gerrymandering scheme, right? Because I don't know what the final I don't think we have I don't think we know the final count yet. Uh but uh it was it just they this wave overcame it.

I'll be I'll be curious to see after if there's anywhere in the country given the size of this maybe not, but are there any places where that where would they would they been able to save one or two seats had they not done the gerrymander because of where they've moved the votes around? Yeah, they're not in dummy mandate danger in this because there's some seats they're going to pick up. But in Florida they were trying to eliminate three Democrats, Jared Moskowitz, Darren Soto, and Kathy Castor.

All three of them won with relative ease. They created a new district they were supposed to be an easier Republican take. We won that district. In Alabama after the Calade decision, they we we did the whole thing to to take down Shemar Figures. He won with ease. You think they if they you add up the seats they if you add up the seats that they put in jeopardy because of the gerrymandering uh and the seats Democrats pick up in California, like I'm saying to do have they net have they netted positive?

Oh, over the whole thing? That's a great question. I think we don't know. Yeah, we don't know yet. I think they're running I think I think almost all of their Florida and Texas gerrymanders failed. Yeah. And and those were the two biggest. So like I there right there's a few There's a there's a real specific definition of a dummy mandate I don't think they hit. But yes, the whole effort was a complete failure.

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All right, let's get to the biggest story of the night which is the Senate because that was the only the real the question heading into the night. As of right now, um we have a few races that haven't been called. In Michigan, about half the votes are in. Abdul is ahead by about a point and a half at this recording. But the Times the needle has him at like like more more than than 95 95%. percent chance of winning. Yeah, that's that is why. Um, and that always happens with Michigan.

Big liberal dumps coming. Big liberal huge dumps. Uh, and they think maybe he'll win by five or more, maybe six last time I saw it. Oh, we don't have any numbers yet from Alaska. So we don't have that yet. But, everything else Mississippi is too close to call. Mississippi is just went up. He didn't. It's tightening. He is now up. Yeah, yeah. He's up. Yes. He just he just just as we were talking, he just took the lead. Wow. Um, so that's that's happening. Uh, but we've already flipped Democrats have flipped seven Senate seats and held Georgia.

Biggest surprises there, Annie Andrews pulling out a four point win in South Carolina. Um, Lindsey Graham's old seat beating Darlene Graham. Adam Hamilton cruising to a five point win in Kansas. Bye bye Roger Marshall. Those are the the the big stunners so far. Annie Andrews, Adam Hamilton and uh, I don't know, those are the big ones. But like what what are what do you guys think of the surprise in the Senate? Like I was shocked that the South Carolina thing happened like in Annie Andrews winning would have been a surprise enough.

The fact that she won by that much is crazy. Annie the Annie Andrews one is the most surprising. Not that she won. Like we had talked about how it was a possibility. There were indica the race was incredibly close and then Times poll that came out last week was essentially tied. But the assumption always was that enough Republicans would come home and she won with ease. They called that race so quickly. It was hard to believe. Kansas is obviously on its face incredibly surprising that it wasn't even on the map six months ago.

Adam Hamilton gets in the race, makes, you know, turns runs an incredible campaign, is an incredible candidate. Roger Marshall possibly the worst candidate to ever walk the face of the planet not named Ken Paxton. And but even like heading into the week you're talking to people who are involved in trying to win the Senate. They were very confident about Kansas. Like more confident about Kansas than even Iowa or Ohio. And just because Marshall was so bad. You could see it and you know you and I talked about on YouTube.

You guys talked about the podcast that add that Adam that Roger Marshall ran. Which is such a like he might as well just put up a sign that said I'm trailing by a massive amounts in the polls. That's why you do those things. But Annie Andrews like that is a stunning victory. She is an awesome candidate. She is going to be an awesome senator. I think there's one thing that's worth noting. Just think about this Senate class that's coming in. Yep. Talarico, Adam Hamilton, Annie Andrews, Abdullahi, just Troy Jackson, a Walker, just like the like really talented, really interesting people from all different kinds of lives.

Many of them not pol not traditional politicians anyway shape or form. Like it's like this will be one of those Senate classes I think people will talk about for a very very long time. And also it's just another indication that candidate quality really matters. Like the South Carolina Republicans naming Lindsey Graham's sister and just like passing along a Senate seat like it's a dynastic thing was a disaster. And you know we saw candidate quality really hurt Republicans in 2022. Like voters in Georgia were like no Herschel Walker is a moron.

We're not voting for this guy. But Chuck Schumer deserves credit for recruiting some really great candidates candidates we're not even talking about like you you know North Carolina and you know the others Yeah, Roy Cooper, Sherrod Brown. Yes, like we just switched. But also like some great candidates emerged in the primary process. Abdullahi, Annie Andrews, right? It's like an exciting moment of like the the bench we now have. Yeah, also there's a lot of like I had talk about the way in which Trump obviously sort of sabotaged the whole operation here.

He gets behind Ken Paxton, gets behind Darlene Graham and fine. Uh, but these are all people that won their primaries, right? Texas Republicans, South Carolina Republicans, they saw the choice. They watched the debate and they still voted for her whether it's because Trump told told him told them to or because Trump was seeing what what they were seeing, whatever. And I also wonder what kind of evaluation you'll see on the Republican side of what led them to this moment. And it will be of course about sort of Trump but also like the voters were they they there was just because Trump says so there have been examples of people defying Trump's will in some of these primaries.

But they went but they got behind Ken Paxton and they fucked themselves. Susan Collins, senator no more. Called the race for Troy Jackson. That was another one everyone was a little worried about towards the end. Some of the polling was a little iffy on that. As of now, he's up by five points, six points. And they called she called him to concede. So I I do think this is that some of these races when there's a wave this big and this is sort of what the hope was even if a candidate is strong like Susan Collins or here it's an you know candidate who didn't have a whole race to get well known like Troy Jackson.

Like the wave just carries you along. Yeah, I mean this is a or you can't or you can't fend off the wave if you're like a Susan Collins. Susan Collins will end up being one of the greatest Republican over performers even in this election if you know it's a it's a state Kamala Harris won by eight points in a plus 13 Democratic environment and she loses by five or six. Yeah. But you know what? You benefited from this one in 2020 and now you're gone. So cool.

There were a few heartbreakers in Florida. Angie Nixon surprise another shocker came within three points of Ashley Moody beating the polls in a state that Trump carried by 13 points in 2024. Um, we talked about Mississippi which is still happening right now. Louisiana with 95 percent of the vote counted Democrat Jamie Davis is losing to Julia Letlow by just under five points. That's a state Trump won by 22 points. Didn't anyone see Louisiana? No. The Republican polling works because there was that report right before Trump agreed to do the last minute tele rally in Louisiana that there was a six points in the internal polling.

I mean the Florida thing was interesting because Florida counts the votes really fast and also throughout the day they were constantly providing updates. So you can sort of like start looking at the tea leaves in the Florida turnout. And it did seem throughout the day that all the turnout reports were they weren't they were like Republicans turning out but it wasn't it was basically matching the polls from Florida. And then it turns out that like the the turnout was not what Republicans needed in Florida. But the persuasion when they started opening the ballots and counting them suddenly like a lot of the deep R places there was just a bunch of Democratic votes there for both Angie Nixon and David Jolly who both came pretty close to winning their races.

David Jolly in the governor's race just lost by I think two points to Byron Donalds and Angie Nixon by a couple points to Ashley Moody. The Florida moment was like very personally meaningful for me because in 2016 when they dumped all that Florida vote and that's the moment we all knew that things were not looking like they were supposed to. I remember talking to someone like a Democratic operative who was like in and around the Clinton campaign and who basically said to me if our numbers are that wrong in Florida they're wrong everywhere.

You were you were on that email chain I believe. Yes I was. I remember and then in 2020 same thing happens again and you realize oh Biden is not going to walk away with this like we thought. 2024 that's when you knew we were going to get our ass kicked over because you had like all the counting in all these other places with massive Latino swings and to have the Florida numbers come in and show something good for us was like an out of body experience.

Yeah. Do you remember that we were talking about this so when when you and I had agreed to go on NBC and it was we we realized it was the the final 15 seconds before we would have had to admit on just be on television while Kamala saying it was over. We saw the moment of just pretend there was hope back when Tony Hinchcliffe was going to deliver the election it turned out that the the Puerto Rico vote was not moving the Tony Hinchcliffe joke. Maybe it was just delayed.

Yes. A little update never wrong only early. Louisiana is only Jamie Davis is only down two points now. What? It's funny the stories we're not talking about. Like Josh Shapiro just got 60 percent in the swing state of Pennsylvania in his race and brought in a bunch of House Democrats the same way. John Ossoff won by 18 points. 18 points. In a state that Trump won. David Crowley is up six in the governor's race in Wisconsin. I don't even yeah, they called that race. Hey, hey Roy Cooper where where where's Roy Cooper at?

Is he like a 15 point margin? I haven't I think they I think they might have done it like a little league game when you're up nine nothing. Yeah, it's like all right everybody ice pops. I feel like it's um I think it's also maybe a an okay night for having contentious primaries and it not mattering in the end, right? Like you know even up to and including the late Haley Stevens. May her memory be a blessing. Roy Cooper is up 20. 59 39. Is that real really?

Yeah. That's a New York Times. That's wild. 95 percent of the vote. Are we doing a separate Michigan category? No, we're about to do Texas. Okay. So so stick with us.

James Talarico, heard of him? He's going to the Senate. He crushed Ken Paxton. Worship an awesome non-binary god in the blue states. And we I know we like and we don't like we don't like OBGYN sending us bills in the red states.

We don't like those OBGYN bills. Let me just fucking the New York Times the website could be a little easier to read when the states come in. You know. They do a great service to us. No, I love them. Let' us all reflect on Nate Cohen's cowardice in not predicting this wave. In his refusal to actually admit how good the numbers really were. Both Nates. Our Nate. Our Nate. We're we're claiming him for yeah, he's ours now. Our Nate, the other Nate, they crushed. Yeah, that it was a good night for a good night for Nates.

Good night for Flipper. Yeah. The model still count model. We love Keith Roboy. Yeah, for those who followed us. and Clay Travis. Did he make that bet? Tough night for the All In Pod. Did Nate ever get that bet? I want to know. We were going to we were going to save this one for the end. It's hard. Sorry, where are we on the part of the outline that says score settling? No, that's after Michigan. Yeah, that's right.

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That's squarespace.com/crooked. Talarico 55 to 43. I can't believe that. Let's talk about Texas because it's not just James Talarico. Gina InNohosa is going to be the governor of Texas now defeating Greg Abbott by a bunch. By what is it six points now five points? The Texas legislature is flipping. State statewide was it 17? The Railroad Commissioner John Rosenthal is going to be the new Both French dumb now. Gina right now on the Times is 53 46. It's about oil and gas pipelines for some reason. I mean what the fuck happened in Texas?

Like Ken Paxton was a terrible candidate. Like historically bad. Corrupt, terrible human being, couldn't keep his dick in his pants. Like all the things you don't want in a candidate who was terrible. Greg Abbott is like a very strong candidate. People were worried about him. He is a machine. He had a lot of money. Gina InNohosa came out of nowhere. She had no money. No one was paying attention to this race. She kicked his ass. She kicked his ass. Yeah, they're going to try to blame they're going to try to two appearances two appearances.

They're going to try to blame Ken Paxton. And then and then connect them to the win. That's hey how many times did Kamala come on 2024? Score settling. Do you think they're going to try to blame they're going to try to blame Ken Paxton for dragging them all down and I'm sure that's part of it but it won't be a won't be able to explain it. Gina ran a great campaign. No, no, no. I'm saying it you but I'm sure in some way Ken Ken Paxton is obviously not a help to the ticket.

He probably whatever but they're going to try to lay it on him and they can. But a statewide Republican massacre in Texas like the ingredients for that were and you saw this in the turnout numbers today too as they were coming in like the rurals just didn't turn out in Texas. And you know in the big counties the turnout was strong especially before election day. The South Texas Latinos in South Texas and everywhere just swung way to the left. And so you know what you started seeing in 2018 I think with Beto coming within two and a half points of Cruz and he got like that huge suburban vote out of like Dallas and Houston and Travis County in Austin and all that.

And then you combine the Latino swing that you saw in South Texas plus Ken Paxton and Greg and I think you know Greg Abbott is a much stronger candidate than Ken Paxton but also he's been governor for three terms. He was running for a fourth term. And I think people in Texas like after how many years of full Republican control of your state and you're pissed off about prices in Ohio. Amy Acton beat that piece of fucking shit Vivek Ramaswamy by five and a half points so far in Georgia.

Um, Keisha Lance Bottoms handily beat Rick Jackson by more than eight to become the first black woman governor in American history. Any other governor's races that I'm missing out there? Iowa. Iowa. Rob Sand. Rob Sand crushed. Rob Sand crushed. Where are things in Kansas right now as you look at this? You got your laptop? I don't know. Cindy Holch-Ryan was leading we went into when we went in to record this pod. So in Kansas she's up 50 Cindy Holch-Ryan is up 50.4 to 49.6. So we could have a new governor in Kansas.

What's the latest in California's governor's race? Javier Becerra is going to be the governor in Kansas. Your pick for sorry California. Um, obviously Amy Klobuchar, Hannah Pingree in Maine, Amy Klobuchar in Minnesota, Gretchen Whitmer, is crushing in Michigan. Oh, and we talked about David Crowley in Wisconsin. A lot of Democratic governors. What about we don't know we don't know enough from Nevada yet about Aaron Ford? No, but he's going to he's take it to the bank. Aaron Ford is going to win. One good election we're making predictions again.

California I've been I've been I've been I've been maybe perusing John Ralston's blog here and there. But it was like most Americans will live in states governed with a that have that have a Democratic governor. Most states will have a Democratic governor I believe now. And we now have Democratic governors in what we hope to be a battleground like Texas but also Georgia and in Wisconsin and a bunch bunch of of states states that that will will that that will will be be uh, uh uh, uh places where they could contest an election in a future uh presidential like I think it's just going to matter for election integrity whatever Trump tries and whatever they try the Georgia one matters a ton because Brian Kemp and the and the in the state legislative Republicans already say they were going to redraw the maps in Georgia next year and now they cannot do that because we

have the governorship also if if one of the senators from Georgia or maybe both or you know either or would like to run for president in 2028 now we have a democratic governor in that state who could uh you know appoint their replacement worth noting just something to something to think about I will say I think we all knew that um Vivek Ramaswamy was a repulsive repellent human being who was just so annoying that you could imagine being in a room with him let alone being governed by him but um the fact that his disgusting ad about Amy Acton maybe cost him the race and also helped lead Sherrod Brown to victory is a wonderful repudiation of him as a human being being but also of just like the the the politics of dis divisiveness and just like cravenness that we've all gotten used to being effective because we're all old enough to have been

around in 2002 and Max Cleland who was a triple triple amputee lost a Senate race by being called soft on national security and soft on terrorism right so like seems like nothing compared to what Vivek did I know so you've you've seen this shit work and just to see it blow up in his face so spectacularly was wonderful it's extra I was thinking about how how great that is and just that here's someone who has always been kind of a slimy guy and just in the home stretch of a campaign loses touch with whatever he's pretending he is and just lets his demon out and he will be now for this foolish reason of a backfiring ad will be defined by it for the rest of his fucking life this is what we talked about the Max Cleland ad we're going to talk about this ad yeah yeah a big tennis career oh yeah plus

the and the and the tennis right probably not a baseball coach yeah I was going to say not so much baseball um so Trump seems to be handling this all pretty well I think actually usually you'd say that as a joke I kind of think that's true no I mean I'm you know first he posted that if he was on the ballot Republicans would have won in a landslide his approval rating was 39 in the exit polls yes right yeah and then he did a phone interview with the New York Times where he said he'd absolutely accept the results and look forward to working with Democrats then he posted an image of a Maga hat with the word veto on it instead then a post attacking Greg Abbott as a Rhino who deserved to lose um he bitched for a while about candidate quality which is interesting because his hand picked candidates Darlene Graham Ken

Paxton Vivek Ramaswamy Vivek Ramaswamy um there's a couple of other that I'm missing too all of his hand pick candidates oh Mike Collins in Georgia Michael Whatley Michael Whatley in North Carolina he pushed Tella out basically right in North Carolina he like kind of he didn't drive Brian Kemp out in Georgia but you know he made it harder for him to run yeah so candidate quality were his candidates and so he he he said all this and then he rounded it all out with a a brief appearance on Fox News um let's listen well I'm a little bit surprised I thought they'd do better we had tremendous rallies and I wasn't on the ballot if I was on the ballot they would have got you know they just weren't inspired they really probably weren't willing to do the short-term consequence of playing paying more for gasoline and that you know I understand that some of

the candidates that I endorsed fought me and they didn't like that they fought me and no matter how good the president is you lose I don't know why it's just a point in time Brett just a point in time it's the way it is can you just imagine that level of punditry like that is somebody that you should be talking to at like like a senior care facility who you're serving and who's like used to be involved in politics and still watches it on the TV and then comments on it from time to time but it's someone's like like and they even on the during the at the end of the interview they're like that's a great point sir good night have a good night get get some sleep buddy it's like like they they were done with him before he was done yeah they cut him off what do we think happens with Trump

next what what does he does he does he stay mad he I I don't think this whole like I'll work with the you don't I I think tomorrow he probably restarts a war with Iran because he knows like a good conflict will change the narrative and you know we get like in insane unhinged Donald Trump again yeah he's going to he's going to spend like right now he can do this like very momentary I don't even know what you would describe what that was but it wasn't lashing out conciliatory approach yes yes that's the way to put it and then he's going to consume all the news coverage that says he's a giant loser who had the worst loss ever it's going to be fuming there's going to be a lot of mood in the White House stories yeah ketchup on the wall yeah but that he's going to have to find an yeah that's

a lot of people make that joke today he's he's going to orange Cheetos is really mad now we got him yeah throw yeah the he's needs someone to blame he can't he can be mad at Democrats he can take it out on Democrats can't blame Democrats for this he has to find someone else to kind of vent his what the cause and all the fucking pussies in the Republican party are blaming other people Ron DeSantis is like oh yeah Kristi Noem is at fault right and Kristi Noem is like the reason we lost is because we were too successful in the first term it's like you are a bunch of embarrassing losers who all think you can run in 2028 and you think that you need to kiss the ring because Trump's endorsement will decide who the nominee is and maybe that's right but it is going to prevent the reckoning that they actually need

inside that party including on the set of Fox News where Bret Baier is like okay sir well I love you and I hope you sleep tight tonight fucking pathetic fucking cowards I just want to like your point on Kristi Noem there's an actual an actual quote from Kristi Noem that she she tweeted this Larry Kudlow is correct we were too successful the first year of the Trump administration to we we we cared too much and that's why they lost that's why they lost they cared too much I don't um but yeah I think he's uh I think he's going to get pretty pissed now here's a question to the to your point Tommy about the pussies in the Republican party um are they fa do you think Republicans this is it like to me I feel like the blood letting within the Republican party is is going to be like we haven't seen in in

in the whole Trump era because these people now like he's on his way out he's he was a lame duck before this now he's the lamest of lame ducks and the the thing that they were all worried about was which is like oh Trump has this hold on the base and if I piss Trump off you know he could turn the base against me and I can lose my job well a bunch of their colleagues have already lost their jobs and so they're out of politics now so if you're a Republican in Congress like why still do this whole thing where you just kiss Trump's ass the whole time I mean that is the existential question right they they are should theoretically be under no pressure to do so or they do they are they do they worry that he'll endorse their primary opponent in 2028 well that matter he he said in that interview

he was like yeah people say whoever I whoever I endorse in 2'28 whoever Trump endorses is going to win didn't say a word about there's like there's two separate questions there is people who are thinking of running for president and how they have to want to stay in Trump's favor I think that's one question and then there is just like you are the a random congressperson who is in you're probably there aren't going to be a lot of them in any of their probably districts because we won all those seats right but your random congressperson what is your incentive to keep doing this and if you are a student of history which none of them are um maybe some periods of Germanic history but um but as you know that it's very possible that this is part one of a two-part wave this could be an O6 O8 so the people who did not break

with Bush after O6 paid a steep price in 2008 lost their seat yeah but it's but see that I think that's but it was not because they were afraid of George W Bush as a figure it was what like there's two parts of what it means to go against Trump right like why does Paxton beat Corden I think it's part because Trump's word goes a long way but and Trump's attacks matter but it's also because being seen as a Trump antagonist in any way or being seen as a Trump ally is a shorthand for the kind of people that fight the people we don't like right like the base made a lot of self-destructive decisions right like what what you're saying is will these other politicians convince the base not to be self-destructive and willing to take that bet and so far they're really saying you know Trump can't fail he can only beat fail

and you see internet you see these little versions of a fight that are about his viziers you know and then and why he's been failed by Noem or failed by Vance or failed by the farm policy advisers I think there's a difference between people like taking off the Maga hat and putting on the lingua franca sweatshirt sweater and like being for impeachment or whatever that is the throwback it is but I think it is but there is like are they just going to in this house we believe are they going to break with him on things on things of that may matter politically like the tariffs and the war there's going to be a whole bunch of those votes with Democrats in charge where they're going to be right but like Mike that we've like on tariffs specifically they've all felt like they've had room to do that right like I think there's something not

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well let's talk about the next two years um so as for Democrats the most widely shared democratic response from Congress was a two-word press release from incoming House oversight chairman Robert Garcia just says lawyer up and that was the one that was read on Fox what do you guys think about that I think we should do a little more I think we should investigate every single thing they should be investigated that is absolutely that is our that is like the constitutional obligation for these folks because Trump's going to pardon every single person and we also just need to put it all on the historical record of every single thing that happened the public needs to know about the depths of it I also think that making it our entire identity as a party is probably not the best politics no it's it's actually bad bad politics yes yes that's that's that was my point yes

I just want to just want to put a finer point on it yeah I'm going to invent a phrase here and I don't know if I'm I think this is going to make a lot of sense I think it's going to be really cool okay because it's kind of something that pe we got to walk and chew gum at the same time so smart you know what I mean like but you get what I'm saying with that can I read you something it's going to bum you guys out uh I can you John Foon told Punchbowl News that he would not rule out a lame duck scotus confirmation yeah I saw that was it was that his old comment to them though this is from November 3rd it can be done you're basically talking about 60 days post election I certainly wouldn't rule that out was that from a while ago I know I thought

he because I remember I was saying it was from July god damn you Punchbowl no I know I know you know if you if you if you were a member if you were a subscriber they would have texted you either you're right Punchbowl date on that Punchbowl pro doesn't you tricks the tricks for the non-baby people that's how they get you they give you the real news behind the paywall if you all watched Sam Alito's interview with Jan Crawford like I like that guy wants to serve an extra he wants to serve out his term he's mad we never got to the bottom of that Nina Nina Totenberg misbegotten scoop you know about saying that Alito was stepping down or the Jan Crawford DMs we didn't hear talk about that yeah but I'm always thinking about those two Robert D I do I do want to get back to the the attic house here just

for a second because there is a challenge here where uh we know that like so if you ask what's the best thing for Democrats to do focus on affordability great nothing's going to happen about affordability for two years nothing they're going to pass no legislation they're going to pass show votes message votes that everyone who pays unbelievably close attention to politics is going to applaud and say great job and then no one else in the country is ever going to hear about it and then there's going to be the ability to do investigations that also maybe don't go anywhere because he's going to pardon everyone and then the Supreme Court has decided that the president is immune from criminal prosecution so I mean and I don't know what to do about that but I do think if I were Democrats in Congress I would at least make clear to everyone like what the reality of

the situation is for the next two years I think that's true here's would be my question about it which is yeah it's not going to be any sort of big kind of democratic uh agenda bills that are going to be able to get through and get to Trump fine but I I do wonder what happens when you have some of these budget fights there's going to be fights that involve funding for the military that include the Iran war and where we draw a line there there's going to be overall funding fights that will include questions around whether we undo some of the Trump cuts in the big beautiful bill and do you extract concessions on that does Trump threaten to veto it do you accept that keep it as an issue to run on when you would obviously like to undo some of the cuts like I don't I just have no idea how that

shakes out in part because the dynamic is yeah right and Trump will probably be the one who shuts it down like he was the last time Democrats were in charge unless he wants to make a deal to undo the Medicaid cuts yeah right you know maybe maybe Jeffries and Schumer can tell him you can be a hero you can undo the Medicaid cuts and everyone's going to love you I don't know I think I think but this when and then you'd say well yes that'll get tied all of a sudden there's going to be these this is what I mean is like there's going to be these real negotiations and there's going to be lines in the sand and there's going to be a debate about whether we gave too much if it's worth it it's worth that's that to me is those are the big fights to come and are actually impactful actually could

help on on Medicaid well and then the reason they're going to be different than the other fights we've had the last 10 years is overshadowing all of those fights will be the 2028 primaries on both sides and so there's going to be what happens in Congress that will be the C block and A and B block will be the democratic primary and the Republican primary I mean think about 2006 right so Democrats win this huge victory Nancy Pelosi becomes the first female speaker it's this a gigantic deal they take power on January 3rd January 13th Barack Obama announces he's running for president Hillary Clinton announces two weeks later and some things a lot of things happened also there were really high profile investigations the Democrats actually did get Bush to sign a minimum wage bill in that period but it became the democratic primary right away and the Republican primary and the and this and

that very busy Republican primary there yeah we're going to have a similar thing going on here too yeah okay before we go we want to take just a quick moment to be um as promised petty as hell and play some of the highlights of right-wing commentators just being kind of sad this watch party is best described as quiet subdued and apprehensive Trump ran around the country saying vote as if I'm on the ballot and that's exactly what happened wish it was two years ago South Carolina again Sean Rule it's sad to me you know and it ended tragically can we do a spin on the races that oh I'm sorry Garrett I guess we're on TV now person that have gone around the country saying act like I'm on the ballot and then tonight post I wasn't on the ballot well it was a metaphorical I'm not going to sugar coat it there's a political

science term for what's happening it's called a country ass whooping that's what's happening right now uh I love the can we do a spin on the good results just caught alive caught alive I think what he was saying was a spin around to the various states if we're defending Bret I don't like Bret Baier yeah sorry I know that that's what happened there I know that you're a big Bret Baier fan fake news us here you know what I mean yeah hey that's we play we play fair here we play right um I don't know you want to react to any of that or was it was that there was a Washington Post reporter who was did an update from the Vivek Ramaswamy uh concession party and he talked to him I'm going to paraphrase this but he talked to somebody and and and the guy was like I'm not doing so good I bet

a lot of money on this and I'm crazy and that's a crazy thing to have done but you're at the Vivek party betting on Vivek uh boy what a reality yeah sort of someone on the other side of that bet I'm happy for Johnny Manziel was parlaying the the Texas Tech game and Ken Paxton to win on Cal She like this is not good we should the Texas Tech win yes they did okay he blew up his Parley yeah um plus Elon Musk half a billion thank you I know it doesn't matter to him but it's nice half a million dollars he spent 200 million dollars in Texas alone on Paxton he tried to buy for the Senate the single worst candidate to run in modern American history money in politics bad thing but does it matter that much not this cycle well here's I think the thing it money does matter obviously but if

you don't have a message all the money in the world doesn't matter as the saying goes you the dog has to eat the dog food you know I also think like if you it matters to a certain point and so if there is a spending imbalance where you know the democratic candidate doesn't have much money at all and the Republican candidate just swamps them right like that that matters but if Democrat if if both candidates can at least get to a certain level where the fucking airwaves are saturated with ads that everyone fucking hates Then then at at least least you you can can neutralize neutralize it it.

That's how ridiculous the campaign finance Well, also also if we're going to be like sort of nerdily precise about it, what mattered here is Democratic candidates raised a ton of money into their campaigns. They were able to buy ads at a much cheaper rate than the super PACs and to the credit of the Democratic super PACs, they understood what the the what the plan was and they bought they reserved their time really early and not even having the all the money they needed for that and then raising to get to that because if you the earlier you buy your ads the lower rate you have and the Republicans because Trump sat on his money for so long and Eli came in late, they were spending, you know, two times what the House Majority PAC and the Senate Majority PAC so it was like we basically the both the Democratic campaigns and the super PACs ran

circles around the ads and helped they didn't nullify the money advantage but they made the number of the the disparity in ads ran much more narrower than the money would suggest. There's also just there's no it's like a it's sort of like the resonant frequency it's like the the ads can make up the difference they can they can matter on the margins but it can't be completely out of rhythm with the country, right? Like it has to be like an ad can help push somebody forward but they have to be on that downswing there has to be some momentum you're getting behind some something organic and real that you can kind of push otherwise uh it just it can't overcome the vibe just can't.

I just want to pour one out for the Democrats in disarray narrative uh main. Turned out that didn't really matter. All right. Michigan, Texas, everyone's like oh Jasmine Crockett is not doing enough for Puerto Rico. Turns out fine. Haley Stevens Haley Stevens That was a fun new cycle. Yeah, that was a fun way to close out the campaign turns out no one gave a shit. And I'll just also say you have uh the exit vote of Jewish voters in Michigan was a 60-35 something like that uh and uh yeah some people absolutely switched to Rogers but the majority of Jewish voters uh stuck with Abdul and uh voted for a Democratic majority and I was glad to see it.

What a night guys. What a night. Long time coming. Not a lot like this. All right, we're going to go to bed see you in seven years and I'll think about our just sort of workshop our takes for the rest of the week. At Crooked Con? Crooked Con dot com I'm at Crooked Con tomorrow. Now now it's a fucking party guys it's a good time. Boy, we dance through the raindrops on these Crooked Cons.

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